The race to secure the Republican nomination for the Senate in Ohio is heating up, especially with former President Trump’s upcoming involvement this Saturday. The competition, which initially included three main contenders, now seems to be a head-to-head battle between businessman Bernie Moreno and state Senator Matt Dolan, leaving Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose potentially out of the running.
Representative Dave Joyce, who has remained neutral, noted that Moreno and Dolan, along with their supporting groups, are the primary ones actively campaigning on television. Moreno has positioned Dolan as opposed to Trump, while Dolan has dismissed Moreno as insincere. LaRose has criticized both of his opponents but struggles to match the financial contributions that Dolan and Moreno, who are funding their own campaigns, have made.
The rivalry escalated significantly when reports surfaced about a controversial profile linked to Moreno’s email. A former intern dismissed the account as a childish joke, yet its mere mention highlights the contentious nature of the race. Former Representative Steve Stivers commented on the increasingly personal attacks, suggesting they are largely unfounded and exaggerated.
Despite Moreno’s earlier advantage from receiving Trump’s endorsement, recent polls indicate Dolan has taken the lead. A survey by Emerson College and The Hill shows Dolan ahead of Moreno by a slight margin, marking a significant shift from previous polls. Dolan’s surge is largely attributed to his extensive advertising efforts.
GOP strategists have observed that Dolan’s advertisements outnumber Moreno’s by a significant margin. Dolan, whose family owns the Cleveland Guardians baseball team, has invested $10 million of his own money into the campaign, including a recent $1 million loan. Moreno has spent $4 million ahead of the primary. Dolan’s previous run in the 2022 primary saw him finishing third, but strategists now view him differently, not strictly as an anti-Trump candidate.
Moreno’s campaign benefits from Trump’s endorsement and the upcoming rally in Dayton. However, with Trump already securing the presidential nomination, there’s concern about whether Trump supporters will be motivated to vote, which could disadvantage Moreno against Dolan.
Yet, Moreno has advantages, including the undecided portion of the GOP primary electorate. Campaign operatives believe these undecided voters are likely Trump supporters who haven’t closely followed the race or are unaware of the election date. Additionally, Moreno is receiving unexpected support from Democrats through an ad campaign funded by the Senate Majority PAC, emphasizing his endorsement by Trump.
As the primary approaches, the impact of Trump’s endorsement and appearance could sway undecided voters in Moreno’s favor, according to strategist Mark Weaver. The final days leading up to the election could be pivotal for Moreno, thanks to the high-profile support and the strategic efforts to mobilize undecided Trump supporters.