Global warming is poised to dramatically transform the landscape of wine production worldwide, as researchers warn that the traditional heartlands of viticulture may struggle to cultivate grapes. A comprehensive review of over 200 studies, published in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, reveals that up to 70% of current wine-producing areas could become unsuitable for grape growing if global temperatures rise more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Notably, many of the world’s premier wine regions are situated within the mid-latitude zones, including California, southern France, and northern Spain. These areas are now facing the threat of climate change, which could alter grape yields, composition, and ultimately, the quality of wine.
The study meticulously divided the continents into macro-regions based on specific climatic conditions conducive to wine production. It estimated a significant risk of unsuitability for 49% to 70% of existing wine regions, contingent on the extent of global warming.
Extreme climate phenomena, such as intensified heatwaves and severe droughts, could hinder the production of premium wines in nearly 29% of these locations. Despite these challenges, Greg Gambetta, a professor of viticulture at Bordeaux Sciences Agro in France and co-author of the study, emphasized the resilience of grapevines. He highlighted their ability to thrive in a wide range of environments, from the deserts of Israel to tropical regions.
However, places renowned for their specific climate and exceptional wines, like Bordeaux, France, might undergo an identity crisis if consistent production becomes untenable due to warmer temperatures. Conversely, regions further north, such as Washington state and northern France, could see a boost in production. Similarly, new areas, including the United Kingdom, might emerge as suitable for viticulture.
As the wine industry explores new territories, the potential impacts on natural ecosystems and biodiversity must be carefully monitored to mitigate any adverse effects. J.J. Huber, a winemaker and owner of Laguna Canyon Winery in Southern California, acknowledged that climate change remains a pressing concern for the industry. Despite not observing any quality changes in his wines amidst drought conditions, Huber is keenly aware of ongoing research into dry farming techniques and adapting to reduced water availability.
The study underscores that the degree of change in suitability for wine production will largely depend on future temperature increases. It concludes that significant shifts in global wine production are imminent, necessitating adaptation by both winegrowers and consumers to the realities of a warmer world.
There is ample opportunity for adaptation, according to Gambetta. Some European regions may need to develop irrigation systems to combat the challenges posed by record-high temperatures and droughts. Moreover, vineyard management practices will need to evolve to accommodate warmer temperatures and the extreme weather conditions that accompany them.