The excitement around NFL quarterback prospects like Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Bo Mix, Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, and Michael Penix, Jr. is reaching new heights. However, there’s a different perspective to consider regarding the 2024 draft’s seemingly unbeatable prospects.
In 2021, the top 15 picks included five quarterbacks, most of whom haven’t lived up to expectations. For instance, Trey Lance, the third overall pick, moved from the 49ers to the Cowboys for a mere fourth-round pick. Mac Jones, picked fifteenth by the Patriots, was traded to the Jaguars for a sixth-round pick just last week. Additionally, Justin Fields, the eleventh pick, was traded to the Steelers for a sixth-round pick set for 2025.
Interestingly, all three of these quarterbacks were selected before Micah Parsons. The Jets are even considering giving away a sixth-round pick just to offload Zach Wilson’s $5.4 million guaranteed compensation. Wilson was the second overall pick that year.
This situation highlights that four out of the five quarterbacks picked have been traded for much less than their original draft value, or in Wilson’s case, might not even be tradable. Trevor Lawrence is the only one who seemed close to fulfilling the expectations of a franchise quarterback, but even his future is uncertain after the Jaguars’ disappointing performance last season.
Looking back, the entire 2021 quarterback class hasn’t shown much promise in three years. Other quarterbacks drafted that year include Kyle Trask, Kellen Mond, Davis Mills, Ian Book, and Sam Ehlinger. Notably, there haven’t been any undrafted success stories like Tony Romo or Kurt Warner from this group either.
This year, many teams are hoping to find their future quarterback in the draft. While the current class appears promising, the 2021 draft serves as a reminder that success in the NFL is unpredictable. As the Draft Industrial Complex ramps up its annual hype, it’s important to remember that drafting the right player is always a gamble.