In a recent Mitchell Research poll, Donald Trump has taken a slight lead over Joe Biden among Michigan voters. The survey, involving 627 voters from Michigan, shows Trump with a 47% to 44% lead over Biden, a margin that falls within the poll’s ±3% error range. Additionally, 9% of voters remain undecided.
The poll also explored a five-candidate scenario, where Trump maintains his lead at 44%, Biden follows at 42%, with independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. capturing 6%, Green Party’s Dr. Jill Stein at 1%, and independent Cornel West also at 1%.
Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research, noted that Trump’s lead could be attributed to the lack of consolidation among African Americans and younger voters around Biden. He suggests that the race could tighten significantly once these groups fully support Biden. Mitchell emphasizes the importance of voter turnout in November, predicting that the candidate who mobilizes their base most effectively will edge out a victory in what promises to be a closely contested race.
The poll reveals a stark partisan divide, with 90% of Republican voters in Michigan favoring Trump and 84% of Democrats backing Biden. Interestingly, the poll also highlights a significant gender gap; Trump enjoys a substantial lead among men (54% to 37%), while Biden is more popular among women (51% to 40%). This gender dynamic is unusual, as Democrats typically rely on stronger support from women compared to their Republican counterparts.
Age-wise, Trump leads among the 18 to 44-year-olds by 18 percentage points (54% to 36%) and among 45 to 64-year-olds (50% to 39%). In terms of racial demographics, Trump has a three-point lead among white voters (47% to 44%) but trails behind Biden with black American voters, 58% to 33%. Trump also has a significant lead among voters who are neither white nor African American, at 61% to 27%.
Geographically, Trump leads in several counties outside of Detroit and in Northern Michigan/the Upper Peninsula, while Biden has the edge in the City of Detroit, Oakland County, and West Michigan. The two candidates are tied in several other counties.
Voter enthusiasm in Michigan is relatively high, with 63% reporting they are “very enthusiastic” and 15% “somewhat enthusiastic.” Republican voters show more enthusiasm compared to Democrats and independents, at 69% to 58% and 61%, respectively.
The poll, conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications Inc. for MIRS (Michigan Information Research Services) on March 15-16, 2024, underscores the dynamic and competitive nature of Michigan’s political landscape as the election approaches. With a margin of error of three percent at the 95 percent level of confidence, the race in Michigan is shaping up to be a critical battleground that could sway the overall outcome of the election.