It’s set for a rematch.
Last week marked a significant milestone for President Biden and former President Trump as they both secured enough delegates to be the expected nominees for their parties. This sets the stage for a highly anticipated face-off in the upcoming general election.
As is often the case, the election’s outcome is likely to hinge on a few key states. According to a joint analysis by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ, seven states are currently seen as highly competitive.
These crucial states include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In the 2020 election, Biden claimed victory in six of these, with North Carolina being the exception, leading to a 306-232 win in the electoral college.
Together, these battleground states account for 93 electoral college votes this year. Presently, polls show Trump leading in all seven states.
Let’s delve into the specifics for each state.
In Arizona, the 2020 race was incredibly close, with Biden winning by a mere third of a percentage point. However, current polls suggest Biden may face challenges in achieving a similar outcome this year.
A recent Emerson College poll for The Hill and Nexstar showed Trump ahead by 3 points in a direct matchup. Trump’s lead expands to 6 points when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is included as an option. A super PAC supporting Kennedy claims to have gathered enough signatures to secure his spot on the Arizona ballot.
Two additional factors are worth noting in Arizona. Firstly, Latinos represent a larger portion of the population here than in any other battleground state, at 33%. While Trump’s team believes he’s making significant inroads with Latino voters nationally, Biden outperformed Trump among this demographic by 28 points in 2020, according to a VoteCast survey.
Secondly, Arizona is expected to host one of the most contentious Senate races, potentially affecting presidential turnout. The impact of this Senate race on the presidential contest remains to be seen.
Moving to Georgia, recent headlines have focused on Trump’s efforts to challenge the 2020 election results in the state. Despite facing legal challenges, Trump is currently ahead in the polls.
In 2020, Biden narrowly won Georgia by about a quarter of 1 percent. A CBS News/YouGov poll this week showed Trump with a 3-point lead in a head-to-head matchup. With a significant Black population in Georgia, voter enthusiasm within this demographic could be crucial for Biden.
Michigan saw Biden winning comfortably in 2020 by nearly 3 percentage points. However, it’s now among the tightest battleground states, with Trump leading in recent polls.
Nevada, a state no Republican presidential candidate has won since 2004, now appears within Trump’s reach, according to recent polls.
North Carolina presents a potential opportunity for Biden to flip a battleground state. Despite Trump’s narrow victory in 2020, demographic changes in major cities could influence the outcome.
Pennsylvania, offering 19 electoral college votes, is a critical battleground. Recent polls show Trump leading, but the race remains tight.
Lastly, Wisconsin, where Biden narrowly won in 2020, shows Trump currently ahead in polls. However, the state’s recent Democratic successes suggest a competitive race.
As the election approaches, these battleground states will be closely watched, potentially determining the next president of the United States.